Tender timing
When to award on air, measured as average deviation from each corridor's own annual mean in index points. Award timing is a corridor question: the corridors do not share one answer, so a single global award month is the wrong instruction.
Air — six corridors
What the six air corridors say
- April is the worst month to award on 3 of the 6 corridors — Asia to Europe, Intra Asia, Europe to Asia. Elsewhere it is not the peak: North America East to Europe peaks in March, Europe to North America East peaks in February, Europe to Middle East and India peaks in June.
- Europe to Middle East and India spans only 9.0 points trough to peak against 28.4 on North America East to Europe, so award timing barely matters there — the month you sign is worth less than the terms you sign.
- Deviations are observed index points, not prices, and not a forecast. They say when a corridor has historically priced below its own mean, not what it will cost next year.
Optimal award month by air corridor
Every corridor is shown, in order of how much the best month saves. A more negative number is a cheaper month relative to that corridor's own mean; corridors are not comparable to each other in level, only in shape.
Seasonal shape, all six air corridors
- North America East to Europeobserved
- Asia to Europeobserved
- Europe to North America Eastobserved
- Intra Asiaobserved
- Europe to Asiaobserved
- Europe to Middle East and Indiaobserved
One value axis in index points, never a dual axis. Colour is bound to the corridor, so hiding one never repaints the others; the table twin carries every value.
How to read the air corridors
North America East to Europe — award in December at -15.2 points below the mean; worst is March at 13.2. Spread 28.4 points.
Asia to Europe — award in September at -12.3 points below the mean; worst is April at 14.9. Spread 27.2 points.
Europe to North America East — award in July at -8.9 points below the mean; worst is February at 8.2. Spread 17.1 points.
Intra Asia — award in August at -8.6 points below the mean; worst is April at 17.6. Spread 26.2 points.
Europe to Asia — award in September at -8.1 points below the mean; worst is April at 12.0. Spread 20.1 points.
Europe to Middle East and India — award in January at -4.6 points below the mean; worst is June at 4.4. Spread 9.0 points. Narrow enough that timing is a second-order concern on this corridor.
Deviation from each calendar year own mean, averaged across four years. Computed twice independently, by the provider analysis service and from the raw monthly series, agreeing to within 0.2 index points on all six corridors.